Market & Equipment Trends for September 2026

Recording live from the Farm Progress Show in Boone, Iowa, Andy Campbell tackles the question he heard most on the show floor: corn is rallying — what does this do to the equipment market? He digs into 4,600 retail transactions to find an answer that's more nuanced than most people expect.

Corn rallies: The numbers

Corn's best month since April 2021 — up over 15% in August, 22% on the year. The September contract traded above $5 on August 26th, the first time a spot month has crossed that mark since October 2023. Wheat is at a 3.5-year high, up 50%+ YTD. Funds have piled into long corn positions, nearing record levels.

But the equipment market won't just turn on a dime

Andy analyzed ~4,600 retail transactions and the data points to a slower path than sentiment suggests:

• Used prices have been surprisingly consistent. Large row crop tractors (1–3 years old, under 1,500 hours) have traded between ~$1,083–$1,177 per horsepower for years — regardless of corn prices.
• Turn times have ballooned. Row crop tractors averaged 70–125 days in 2022–23. Today: 165–290 days. The $250K–$350K mid-range band is sitting 250+ days.
• Low-hour units are moving, but there's a cost. 28% of low-hour large row crop tractors on dealer lots moved in August (vs. 16% a year ago). But 56% of those sold below cost — the highest of any month in the dataset. Those units had been sitting 300–370 days.
• The middle is stuck. Cheap iron moves on demand. Expensive iron moves on incentives. The 2,000–4,000 hour, $250K–$350K middle band is accumulating.

The corn-margin correlation: Not what you'd expect

When Andy ran the correlation between corn prices and dealer margin/speed of sale, it initially showed ~0.8 — almost too good to be true. The catch: the correlation only holds when corn is well above farmer break-even. Between ~$4.50 and $5.00, there's no meaningful correlation with margin or turn times. And break-even has been a moving target with rising input costs. When the 2023 corn collapse (from $6.70 to $4.80) hit, the equipment market didn't feel it until Q2 2024 — roughly a three-quarter lag.

What dealers should to do with these information

• Don't chase overallowances on trades just because sentiment is improving; that's what got a lot of dealers into trouble over the past year
• Watch the 2,000–4,000 hour segment closely through September, October, and November. If those mid-range units start moving, it's a real signal
• Last-gen and older models should continue to sell well; improving farmer income after harvest could finally unstick some of that mid-range inventory
• The corn rally may accelerate activity, but margin discipline now determines whether it helps or hurts your books going into 2027

Sources

• CNBC: "Corn and Wheat Prices Jump to Highest Prices in More Than Three Years" (August 28, 2026)
• AgWeb: "Grains Extend Rally, Corn Makes 3-Year Highs" (August 26, 2026)
• Farm Progress: "USDA Cuts Corn and Soybean Yield Forecasts" (August 12, 2026)
• Farm Progress Show 2026 — Boone, Iowa, September 1–3