Market & Equipment Trends for October 2026

Andy Campbell checks in on corn's roller coaster, weakening farmer sentiment, the U.S.–China trade deal's limited impact, and a dealer inventory picture that looks cleaner on paper but is struggling on velocity.

Commodities & sentiment: The rally didn't stick

December corn rallied ~90 cents from the August 12th WASDE to its early September peak near $5.50. The September WASDE cut yield to 178.5 bu/acre, but ending stocks came in above estimates. December corn closed just shy of $5 on October 5th. November beans are at $12.80 with basis swinging wildly by region. The Purdue/CME Ag Economy Barometer dropped to 123 from 135. The Farm Capital Investment Index fell 6 points to 39, its lowest reading of 2026. A record 52% of respondents cited high input costs as their top concern.

• Cash deals (higher-hour units, headers, grain carts) are progressing faster
• Financed purchases are stalling out
• October sets the harvest price for crop insurance — both corn and beans are trading above projected prices, which farmers are watching closely
• October 9th WASDE and crop production reports are the next key dates

U.S.–China deal offers some relief, but it's not a game-changer

The September 25th summit produced tariff cuts on ~$60B in goods covering meat, dairy, corn, wheat, soy grain, and vegetable oils. Soybeans did not make the cut. China is on pace for its 25M metric ton pledge (~10M confirmed in new crop sales), but the separate $17B/year farm products pledge has largely stalled on details.

Dealer Inventory: Cleaner lots and slower sales

Lots are cleaner across the country. Aged inventory (360+ days) is down in every major large ag category;  corn headers are down 51% YoY, though four-wheel drives only down 6%. But the pace of sale is slowing:

• July–September dealer units sold: flat or down in every category except platform headers
• Utility tractor sales down ~53%; corn headers down ~14%
• Higher-hour row crop tractors moving at ~90 days average; low-hour units (500–1,500 hrs) sitting 180–200 days
• Headers are the bright spot — tighter supply, harvest demand, and the ability to buy without financing are all helping

Pricing gaps: Headers vs. four-wheel drives

• Headers: Corn head turn rate improved to 2.8–2.9x (vs. 2.5x last year). Inventory down ~23%, aged down 51%. Typical corn head sold in September was listed just 84 days. Platform headers up 8% on sales pace.
• Class 8 combines: Auction values holding steady YoY — bouncing along the bottom, nearing replenishment need.
• Four-wheel drives: Slowest category. Turn rate below 1.0x. Median days listed at 258. Over a third of inventory is aged. One positive: late-model, low-hour units (<800 hrs) are holding values at auction as new-equipment buyers shift down.

Sources

• Purdue/CME Ag Economy Barometer — September 2026 — Barometer at 123; Farm Capital Investment Index at 39; 52% cite input costs as top concern
• USDA WASDE Reports
• USDA Crop Progress Reports
• Deere Q2 FY2026 Earnings