Market Insights for June 2026

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*Sign up for our Q2 Equipment Market webinar on June 24 for a deeper dive into these categories and more. Andy Campbell frames up the first half of 2026 with a category-by-category look at used equipment trends — and a recurring theme: inventory is improving, but sales velocity is not keeping pace.

Andy Campbell covers four converging stories shaping the equipment market as the first half of 2026 wraps up: Deere's Q2 earnings, a tariff reduction, a sharp commodity sell-off, and used equipment signals that are stabilizing in most categories — but not all.

Deere Q2 Earnings: Construction Carries the Load

Deere reported $13.4B in Q2 revenue (up 5% YoY), beating analyst estimates with $6.55 EPS vs. $5.70 expected. But the segment split tells the real story:

• Production & precision ag: Revenue down 14%, operating profit down 39%
• Small ag & turf: Revenue up 16%, operating profit up 25%
• Construction & forestry: Revenue up ~30%, operating profit up ~50% — driven by infrastructure spending, data center build-out, and road construction
• Management reaffirmed FY2026 as the cycle bottom; U.S./Canada large ag volumes expected down 15–20% for the full year
• Deere received ~$250M from IEEPA tariff refunds — a one-time margin boost, not structural relief

Tariff Shift: Ag Equipment Drops to 15%

President Trump signed a proclamation on June 2nd cutting tariffs on imported ag equipment from 25% to 15%, effective June 8th through end of 2027.

• Some margin relief for OEMs, but don't expect lower sticker prices near-term
• New equipment pricing still likely to rise 1–6% through end of 2026 — just potentially a point lower than before
• Experts project large ag industry stabilization in H2 2026 as deferred purchases begin cycling back

Commodities: Corn Takes a Hit

July corn futures dropped to $4.19/bushel — down nearly 30 cents in a single week and the lowest since October 2025. November beans fell to $11.15–$11.35, the lowest since April 2025.

• Near-ideal planting conditions and rain are boosting yield expectations, removing risk premium
• Managed money has aggressively liquidated long positions; more selling likely
• No Chinese demand materializing on beans — a meaningful demand miss
• The Purdue/CME Ag Economy Barometer fell to 119 in May; the Farm Capital Investment Index hit its lowest since September 2024
• 51% of farmers cite high input costs as their top concern — a survey record
• Next key date: July WASDE report for updated ending stocks and planted acreage

Used Equipment: Stabilizing, With Exceptions

Compact tractor inventory down 8% month over month (30% YoY). Planter supply continues to draw down. Some auction values are ticking up, especially on low-hour equipment, as price-averse buyers shift from dealerships to auctions.

• Grain carts remain a concern: Days on lot climbed from ~300 to 400+; asking prices up ~13% YoY. Farmers are treating grain carts as elastic, deferrable purchases — and that behavior could spread to headers, four-wheel drives, and eventually row crop tractors.
• Row crop tractors and combines: sales still near the bottom. May data isn't definitive, but early June auction activity should set the tone for summer.

Sources

• White House Fact Sheet: Tariff Updates on Steel, Aluminum, and Copper Imports (June 2, 2026)
• Purdue/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer — May 2026
• USDA WASDE Reports