Equipment Trends for May 2026

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Deere releases Q2 earnings May 21st. They're coming off a Q1 beat but saw operating margin compression (4.4% vs. 11% on production and precision ag) and called 2026 the bottom year for large ag. With AGCO posting a slight sales bump and CNH flat year over year, all eyes are on whether Deere echoes CNH's inventory reduction push.

Four-Wheel Drive Depreciation: A Closer Look

Responding to a question from a producer in the Dakotas, Andy ran depreciation comparisons across several 9-series Deere models. The 9620RX is running about $57/hour in depreciation at ~2,000 hours, the 9620R at ~$43/hour, and the 9620RX Wide depreciates faster early — likely because secondary buyers don't value the wide-track premium the way original buyers did. The 9RX830 lacks enough resale data for a direct comparison, but using the 9RX640 as a proxy shows roughly $124/hour — reinforcing that newer, higher-cost units depreciate significantly faster.

Key Takeaways:

• Track and specialty configurations depreciate faster early, then converge with base models.
• Higher-cost units like the 9RX series carry steeper per-hour depreciation.
• Useful context for dealers advising operators on which units to run hardest.

Grain Carts: A Warning Sign on Dealer Lots

Average days listed for grain carts has climbed from ~300 to ~400 days — a 35% increase. Supply, which had been declining across most equipment categories since 2024, started ticking back up for grain carts in late 2025. Average prices on 900–1,100 bushel carts under 10 years old have jumped 15% year over year (from ~$53K in 2025 to ~$60K in 2026), likely driven by tariff pass-through and trades of higher-end units purchased in 2021–22. A recent KC Fed report on farm financial conditions notes that while equity remains solid, liquidity is softening for some producers — just enough to push discretionary purchases like grain carts down the priority list.

Key Takeaways:

• Grain cart days on lot are up ~35%; supply is rising while demand softens.
• Prices are up 15% YoY — tariffs and trade-in mix are likely contributors.
• Softening farmer liquidity is making discretionary equipment upgrades easier to defer.
• Review your lot now — elastic, deferrable categories need attention before summer.

Used Equipment Supply: Stabilizing in Key Categories

Planter supply has dropped significantly. Row crop tractors and combines are nearing the bottom and flattening month over month — steady pricing into summer with a possible rebound. Four-wheel drive supply continues to decline, but values are still softening (~4% YoY). High-speed tillage equipment may also be sticking around longer on some lots.

Key Takeaways:

• Planters, row crop tractors, and combines are stabilizing — watch for firming prices.
• Four-wheel drives: supply is down but values are still weakening.
• Check for "elastic" equipment categories on your lot that buyers can defer.

Diversification Still Winning

Compact construction, compact tractors, and cattle-adjacent markets (beef and dairy) continue to be bright spots. Compact tractor volume is down ~26% YoY, but reduced inventory is supporting prices. Deere's Q1 flagged small ag and turf up 24%. Anecdotally, diversified dealers consistently report these segments outperformed in 2025 and into 2026.

Key Takeaways:

• Compact construction and cattle country remain the strongest segments.
• Reduced compact tractor inventory is helping hold prices.
• Dealers with diversified mixes continue to outperform.

What to Watch

• Deere Q2 earnings (May 21st): Will they echo CNH's destocking push or AGCO's optimism?
• WASDE report (released May 12th): Projects tighter corn/soybean supplies and higher prices for 2026/27.
• Tractor Zoom summer webinar: Late June — more details to be release soon on our Webinars & Events page.

Sources

• AGCO Q1 2026 Earnings
• Deere & Company Investor Relations
• USDA WASDE Report — May 2026
• KC Fed: "Deterioration in Farm Financial Conditions Remains Gradual" (May 2026)