Market Insights for April 2026

Andy Campbell kicks off the first Market Insights episode with four stories shaping the equipment industry this spring: Strong but uneven OEM earnings, a major Supreme Court tariff ruling, shifting dealer sentiment, and a fertilizer market rattled by geopolitics. For insights like these delivered to your inbox each month, sign up for the Tractor Zoom newsletter.

OEM earnings: A beat with a caveat

Deere posted net equipment sales up 18% quarter over quarter, well ahead of expectations. CNH and AGCO also topped estimates. The strength came from small ag, turf, and construction — not large ag, which Deere described as being at "the bottom of the current cycle." AGCO is underproducing relative to demand in Q1/Q2, and CNH continues helping dealers draw down inventory.

Key takeaways:

• Small ag, turf, and construction led the beat; large ag remains at the cycle bottom.
• OEMs are actively working to bring dealer inventory down.
• Diversified dealers are best positioned right now.

Tariffs: Supreme Court ruling brings potential relief

The Supreme Court struck down the administration's use of IEEPA to impose sweeping tariffs. The ruling should ease future price pressure on whole goods and parts, though costs already in current inventory won't shift short-term. CNH's ag segment saw adjusted EBIT fall from $1.47B in 2024 to $772M in 2025, a measure of how severe the tariff impact has been.

Key takeaways:

• Broad tariff authority under IEEPA was struck down.
• Future cost pressure should ease; current inventory pricing won't change overnight.
• Retaliatory tariffs remain a risk.

Dealer sentiment: Cautious but improving

The Ag Equipment Intelligence 2026 Dealer Business Outlook surveyed hundreds of North American dealers at end of 2025. 44% expect new sales to decline at least 2% — a smaller share than the prior year. Inventory remains elevated (46% say new is too high, 40% say used), but two-thirds expect used sales to be flat or better.

Key takeaways:

• Expectations are improving year over year; caution remains.
• Inventory is elevated but trending the right direction.
• Regional variation is significant.

Geopolitics, fertilizer prices, and planting implications

U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran have effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz, disrupting roughly a third of global fertilizer supply. Urea prices surged from ~$516 to $683/metric ton — some analysts estimate a 50% increase. Farmers without locked-in prices may shift acreage from corn to soybeans. Counterintuitively, less corn acreage could support corn prices and, in turn, equipment demand.

Key takeaways:

• The Iran conflict has sharply disrupted fertilizer supply and pricing.
• Acreage may shift from corn to soybeans where input costs aren't locked in.
• Reduced corn acreage could support corn prices — a potential tailwind for equipment sales.

What to watch in May

• Q1 OEM earnings: AGCO and CNH early in the month; Deere later.
• Planting progress: First plant dates hit mid-April across the Midwest — watch for real acreage data.
• Potential Trump-Xi meeting: Tentatively rescheduled for May; could be a major market mover.

Sources

• Deere & Company Q1 FY2026 Earnings Release
• CNH Industrial Q4 2025 Earnings
• AGCO Q4 2025 Earnings
• U.S. Supreme Court IEEPA Opinion
• farmdoc daily — University of Illinois
• Ag Equipment Intelligence 2026 Dealer Business Outlook
• Farm Policy News — University of Illinois