June 2026 Equipment Market Update: Falling Supply, Uneven Strength

Tractor Zoom's Director of Insights, Andy Campbell, spent two weeks digging into the equipment market data ahead of our Q2 2026 dealer webinar, and his framing sets up this month's numbers well: the ag equipment market is still working through a cyclical trough, but the conditions underneath it are shifting.

Dealer inventory levels have moved out of 2024's overstock range into healthier territory, and Andy sees little chance of a repeat of that summer's forced liquidation. Still, the trough isn't over, and dealers polled during the webinar were split on timing, with most pointing to late 2026 or into 2027 for a real bottom. This was almost identical to what the same group said a year ago about 2025 into 2026.

The throughline for dealers is that holding costs are high enough right now that acting on good data beats waiting for a perfect signal. Auction volume is thinner and less representative of the true market than in past years, so the dealers pricing off real-time actual-sold comps (not list price or year-old comps) are the ones staying ahead of this shifting market. That data-first approach drives this month's category breakdowns below.

Watch the on-demand recording of the Q2 2026 Equipment Market Webinar for Andy's full category-by-category breakdown.

A note on this month's numbers

The categories below focus on year-over-year comparisons, to showcase the real shift we are seeing in the market, even though 2026 can feel a lot like 2025. This year-over-year comparison will control for seasonal noise and give a cleaner read on where each category actually stands.

Utility tractors (100-174 HP)

Supply has pulled back for this subcategory in 2026, helped along by demand from a diversified buyer base that includes cattle producers. That's also the category's biggest risk heading into fall — Andy is watching a sizable slug of 90-240 day inventory that crosses into aged territory between August and December if it doesn't sell this summer, right as the cattle market that's been propping up demand is being challenged with high feeder-cattle input costs. 

The bright spot is auction values, where we’re seeing some of the strongest values in years, running roughly 5-10% above last year across nearly every hour bracket.

• Inventory Volume: -24% YoY
• Aged Inventory (360+ Days): -28% YoY
• Sales Velocity: +1.8% YoY
• Turn Rate (3-Month Avg.): -12% YoY

Small row crop tractors (175-299 HP)

This is the softer of the two row crop classes this month. Both velocity and turn rate declined YoY, and Andy's deeper dive into low-hour units (under 2,000 hours) shows why: Historically, about 38% of those sell within their first 60 days on a lot, but so far in 2026 that figure is down to roughly 25%. 

Higher-hour units (2,000-4,000 hours) are holding up much better at both auction and retail, as more price-sensitive buyers shift down into that range. It's also a category showing price sensitivity — a surprising equipment category to see cracks in.

• Inventory Volume: -23% YoY
• Aged Inventory (360+ Days): -13% YoY
• 60-Day Sales Velocity: -19% YoY
• Turn Rate (3-Month Avg.): -21% YoY

Large row crop tractors (300-424 HP)

The strongest of the tractor categories this month. Supply has pulled back only modestly relative to the smaller classes, actual sold values have climbed for three to four straight quarters, and units sold rose YoY, although June last year was a weak sales month. 

Andy's also seeing early signs of speculative buying return in this category for the first time in about two years, a healthy sign for trade activity. Auction volume is picking up, too (John Deere 8R 370s alone saw twice the auction volume over the same time period last year). And unlike some categories, that added volume is coming with stronger values.

• Inventory Volume: -9.9% YoY
• Aged Inventory (360+ Days): -3.0% YoY
• Turn Rate (3-Month Avg.): -13% YoY

4WD tractors (425+ HP)

Supply has come down for 4WD tractors, but not enough to offset softer demand, and aged inventory isn't meaningfully declining. Andy has flagged 4WD as having many price-elastic tendencies as a big-ticket, discretionary purchase that's easier to push out against a tightening farm budget. 

Retail list, actual sold, and auction values are all still trending in the same direction: Down.

• Inventory Volume: -11% YoY
• Aged Inventory (360+ Days): -4.4% YoY
• Turn Rate (3-Month Avg.): FLAT YoY

Combines (Class 7 & 8)

One of the stronger stories in this month's data. Actual sold values keep improving — low-hour combines are now selling just 6.5% under list on average, improving their margin from roughly 10% under list a year ago. 

Average auction values look softer at first glance, off about 9% YoY, but this is  attributed more to a shift in what's showing up at auction rather than a real decline in equipment values. There were no Class 8s sold above $250,000 at auction in May, and very few early in June, meaning lower-quality machines were pulling the average down, not the market itself.

• Inventory Volume: -7.8% YoY
• Aged Inventory (360+ Days): -17% YoY
• Turn Rate (3-Month Avg.): +4.2% YoY

Self-propelled sprayers

Sprayers remain another relatively healthy category tracked by Tractor Zoom Pro data this month. Supply and aged inventory are both down sharply YoY, actual sold values are tracking close to list, and the pipeline of units approaching aged status is thin — a much better setup than utility tractors, where a larger aging wave is still building.

Andy notes a slight dip in the overall auction average, but that's being pulled down by an older generation of sprayers cycling onto the auction block as OEMs roll out newer tech; current-generation units are actually selling well ahead of 2024 and 2025 values, and that older-generation exit is opening up a lower price point for farmers who couldn't previously justify the investment.

• Inventory Volume: -27% YoY
• Aged Inventory (360+ Days): -27% YoY
• 60-Day Sales Velocity: +18% YoY
• Turn Rate (3-Month Avg.): +4.8% YoY

Planters (all rows)

Planters saw a sharp supply reversal, which is a positive leading indicator rather than a lagging concern — because this category has been declining the longest, it may also be first to recover. About 22% of June's planter inventory is brand new to the lot (0-30 days), a sign of fresh trade-in activity tied to new sales. 

Auction averages are holding steady, but actual retail sold values turned in a notably strong second quarter, which is a sign that pent-up demand in some regions and brands is starting to return, even without a full rebound in transaction volume.

• Inventory Volume: -23% YoY
• Aged Inventory (360+ Days): -40% YoY
• 60-Day Sales Velocity: +138% YoY
• Turn Rate (3-Month Avg.): +7.7% YoY

The bottom line

Every category Tractor Zoom tracks saw inventory volume fall YoY this June, but that pullback isn't translating into uniform health. Large row crop tractors, Class 8 combines, sprayers, and planters are all showing real strength in actual sold values and sales activity. Utility tractors and smaller row crop tractors carry more risk under the surface than their supply numbers alone suggest, and 4WD tractors remain the category most exposed to price sensitive buyers pulling back. As Andy puts it, the actual sold data is the edge right now, and dealers pricing off accurate and current comps are the ones moving equipment.

Not yet submitting your sold data through Tractor Zoom Pro? It takes minutes to set up and gives you access to the real-time comps driving these decisions. If you're already a Tractor Zoom Pro user, reach out to your Customer Success Manager to make sure you have access to this data source.

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