Row Crop Header Values in 2024

Late-model Row crop header auction values have been cut down 15% since last year, yet the older models took their trimming in 2023 and have held their value since.  Combine header values, as we’ll see in this analysis, tend to be more stable than other categories, yet it is important to understand the supply, demand, and turn data that underpins that stability because that helps inform us of leading indicators to watch for in other categories. 

Despite the stability, headers are still worth keeping an eye on as they can be an important component to dealership’s overall whole goods and parts strategy. For many dealerships, row crop and platform headers may only comprise 2-5% of their overall inventory value. Yet, as Tractor Zoom data converges closer to the I-states, that percentage tends to increase, with some proportions of dealer’s overall inventory value reaching double digits. In this analysis we will start with analyzing inventory turns, then focus on a few older models and then more late-model results.

Spoiler alert… There hasn’t been major fluctuations in values in the row crop header market in the last 12 months. Certainly not like we’ve seen in the combine market. This consistency is easy to understand when you look at the annualized unit turns metrics from this year over last. By taking the dealership sold units divided by the supply on Tractor Zoom Pro’s Market Trends, we can track the turns. 

The annualized turns metrics by month: 

Comparing the seasonal turns from January and May last year to this year were very similar, with 2024 actually turning slightly faster. The encouraging takeaway here is that headers are still moving off dealer lots. There is a downside behind the curtain though. Through Tractor Zoom Pro’s actual sold average, the data is showing decreasing margins, as a percentage of list values. These tightening margins along with the persistently higher interest rates makes upcoming liquidation of units more likely. That of which we are already seeing signs of in June auction volumes. 

To check the values of row crop headers, we’ve taken three of the more popular models of row crop headers, listed below, sorted each set for similar features, and compared those values year over year. 

In the following charts the value of those row crop headers are plotted against the age of the header, defined by the number of harvests those headers have been through. Interesting side note… when accounting for the number of harvests vs simple age of a header, the ‘best fit’ of the depreciation curve improves and reduces error by about 5%.

As mentioned earlier and and we'll see soon, there hasn’t been a significant drop in older row crop header auction values this past year. Yet, that doesn’t mean the market doesn’t shift. Tractor Zoom historic data shows a change in values that peaked up in 2022, then receded slightly in 2023. 

While the value of these older row crop headers are one third the value of the new generation, there still are a significant amount of ten year-old models on the market. A hold-over consequence of the 2013 production boom.  The graph below shows the relative parity of unique  listings on dealer lots that occur for late-model headers to the left with the approximately ten year old header supply occupying the mound in the center. 

To help control for more variability, we’ve leveraged Tractor Zoom’s Smart Descriptions, a function of TZ AI, to help sort out chopping corn heads from non-chopping headers. The first graph below is for non-chopping 612C’s.  While there is variability within each different age of headers, the overall trend between 2023 and 2024 values shows no appreciable difference in values for these older 612C’s. You can see the noticeable drop from 2022 to 2023.

Chopping corn heads trended in a similar fashion from 2022 to 2024. 

For comparison and verification, below is a similar Case IH model, the 4412 row crop header. The auction values peak in 2022, then drop in 2023 and stay consistent to this point in 2024. 

While older iron is holding steady, when we line-up to focus on late-model headers, the data does suggest a current drop from 2023 values. There are not as many data points for these models, yet because of the higher values there is more of a noticeable spread when the market does shift. 

Looking at John Deere’s late-model C12F, non-chopping, header data, the data is suggesting a drop of 15% from 2023 auction values. Earlier this year we analyzed this market and found a 5-8% annual drop in values in January. So this current 15% drop is in line with this trend continuing.

There are not as many chopping C12F data points on the market, but for those that are out there, the 3 year old average in 2024 is at $101,700.  Compared to 2023 average value of $118,600 that is a 14% decline. 

So while headers may not occupy a significant proportion of your inventory, the large number of them, the high auction rate of older models, options and determining values can still occupy a significant portion of your time. Hopefully this analysis and understanding the supply, turns and transparent values of Tractor Zoom Pro cuts that time down for you.