Spring 2025 Equipment Market Trends & Insights
3/26/2025As the 2025 planting season ramps up, dealers and lenders are asking a familiar but pressing question: “What’s the equipment market really telling us right now?” In Tractor Zoom’s recent Spring 2025 webinar, Director of Insights Andy Campbell shared real-time data from Tractor Zoom Pro’s database and gave an analysis that answered that question across a range of categories.
From compact tractors to planters, the message is clear: Understanding what’s moving – and why it’s moving in that direction – is key to managing risk, spotting opportunity, and staying ahead.
Let’s break down some of the latest equipment market trends and look at some key insights we can glean from these figures. To see the full market report on all of the equipment types presented here, watch our Spring 2025 Webinar.
Compact tractors are quietly thriving, and new residential construction may be a factor
Once the poster child for COVID-era supply delays, compact tractors have officially leveled out. National inventory has been consistent for nearly a year, and March 2025 is showing a meaningful uptick in sales activity – strong enough to suggest more than just a seasonal bounce.
What’s driving the momentum? One surprisingly impactful data point: housing completions are at their highest point in years, especially in suburban and rural areas where compact tractors are currently in high demand.
After all, these machines are a favorite among rural landowners and small-scale contractors – two buyer groups seeing growth thanks to new residential development.
Why this matters:
- Stable supply + rising sales = low risk
- Residential sprawl is expanding the compact buyer base
- For lenders: this category remains a low-volatility asset
Utility tractors: One of the market’s most reliable performers
If there’s one category that’s showing healthy balance, it’s small utility tractors in the 100–175 HP range. Unlike some other segments, supply and sales are rising at a similar pace, keeping turns consistent and the market relatively stress-free.
The demand here is diverse – ag producers, municipalities, utilities, even hospitals are buying utility tractors. This widespread use case means that even if one segment pulls back, another is likely to pick up the slack.
Why this matters:
- Inventory turns are holding steady
- Buyers span public, private, and ag sectors
- This is arguably the most resilient category in Spring 2025
High-horsepower tractors: Aging inventory, but buyers are still biting
Oversupply continues to hang over the 425+ HP tractor market, but there’s a silver lining. Tractor Zoom data witnessed stronger demand return in March, which is a welcome sign that buyers are looking for value, despite the currently depressed commodity markets.
Even with auction prices down 11% year over year, both list and sale prices have risen in recent weeks, despite units having more hours on them. That shift is easing pressure for dealers holding aged inventory and could indicate a soft rebound is underway.
Why this matters:
- Price uptick signals improving buyer sentiment
- Still oversupplied, but the signs are turning more positive
Row crop tractors: A cautious market with hidden potential
In the 300–425 HP range, the market remains cautious. Sales are slower than ideal, and prices have slipped about 6% year over year. Still, there are signs of stabilization: manufacturer production is tapering off, which should ease pressure over time.
One overlooked factor that could shape the rest of the year? Projected net farm income for 2025 is near record highs, largely due to anticipated government payments. If those projections hold, buyer confidence could surge in the second half of the year.
Why this matters:
- Supply is rising, but more slowly than it did in 2024
- Farm income projections may drive late-season equipment buys
- Potential exists, but timing and confidence are key
Sprayers are slowing—Unless you’ve got a big boom
Self-propelled sprayers are experiencing what many dealers expected: slower turns, modest sales, and high carryover resulting from farmer forward buying in 2022–2023. However, not all sprayers are created equal.
Data from Tractor Zoom Pro shows stronger auction values for wide-boom models (100–120 ft). These machines often feature newer technology, increased efficiency, and appeal to progressive growers looking to maximize acreage coverage.
Why this matters:
- Market risk is higher due to slower sales and past overbuying
- Wide-boom sprayers remain in higher demand and are retaining more value
Planters: Controlled supply meets surging auction activity
Planters might be the stealthiest story in this spring’s equipment market. Inventory is down 8% year over year, as dealers stay selective on trades and manufacturers have experienced multiple years of reduced early orders.
And the auction market appears to be weaving together the result of those dealer selective trades. March 2024 saw a record number of planters sold at auction—and March 2025 looks to be close behind.
Farmers may be shifting behavior here, opting to sell directly at auction rather than trading through a dealer. That’s a trend to watch closely, especially as more sellers look to maximize the value of their bolted on upgrade kits on the open market.
Why this matters:
- Inventory is tighter, helping maintain pricing
- Auction volume is high
- Farmer-to-auction behavior may shift dealership dynamics, at least regarding planters
The “Bigger Picture”: Equipment flows where cash goes
Perhaps the most telling insight from this recent analysis came from overlaying two separately sourced metrics: Auction values for row crop tractors have tracked closely with net farm income for over a decade.
And while auction prices are slightly down this spring, the USDA’s projected farm income suggests they may not stay that way for long. With some government payments already hitting bank accounts, it’s possible we’ll see end-of-year purchases ramp up, especially in large ag.
This means that dealers should be prepared, not reactive. If farmers have more cash than expected by Q3, they’ll be shopping for equipment – and they’ll be looking for partners who are ready to move. Considering the length of large ag equipment sales cycles, now is the time to improve sales coverage across an organization’s entire area of operations.
Coming Soon: Building Your Data Strategy, One Step at a Time
In the second half of our Spring 2025 Webinar, Lead Data Scientist Hank Mandsager turned the lens inward, helping dealers and lenders think about how to build a practical, ROI-driven data strategy. His summary includes:
- How to shift from transactional to analytical data processes
- Identifying internal champions to lead digital transformation
- Running simple experiments to test and validate ideas
We’ll unpack those ideas in our upcoming article: How to Start Building Your Equipment Data Strategy (link coming soon).
Final thought: Insights are the new inventory
The equipment market isn’t just defined by price points or inventory counts. It’s defined by context – who’s buying, what they’re buying, and why.
Whether you’re managing risk, appraising equipment, or planning your next sales program, having the right data (and knowing how to use it) is more important than ever.